The Six Pack: Boatin Blake’s Locks for 1/19

Well, the six pack is currently stuck in the 3-3 curse. All but one night has ended with a 3-3 recorded. I want to go big or go home for now on so I am hoping tonight’s slate beats this average trend: 

Ohio State -4.5 v. Purdue 

Like I have said in past Six Packs, it is tuff to beat the same team twice in one season. Purdue, in mid-December was able to beat Ohio St convincingly at home. However, I think Ohio St. has become an even better team since then. Although, they boast the same KenPom ranking of 16, tOSU is currently top 10 in offensive efficiency and has a great win on the road against Illinois. Beating Illinois showed me that tOSU can guard the paint, so I like another resume win here for the Buckeyes. 

South Carolina +6 @ Mizzou 

We have not seen much of the Gamecocks this season. They have only played 6 games and boast a 3-3 record. However, if you look into their losses, they have lost to both Houston and LSU which are top 25 KenPom teams. They are fresh and boast a top 50 defensive efficiency ranking which is always something to be happy about. On the other hand, I love this Missouri team but they are anemic on offense. They are addicted to playing close games this season and had a bad loss to Miss. St. recently. Their three point percentage ranks 330th in the NCAA which is HORRIBLE. If Mizzou gets down early, they are not able to shoot their way back into games. Give me the Gamecocks in a close loss. 

Maryland +10.5 @ Michigan 

This is a pure market play. Michigan got absolutely blown out by Minnesota on Saturday. In the past, when gambling was not as prevalent, the play here would be Michigan because the line would be deflated based on the public believing Michigan is not as good as we previously thought. Now, I think the market and bookmakers have gotten smart and we need to go the other way. Everyone will be expecting a Michigan bounce back game, but I think Maryland is a scrappy enough dog to cover this game. Maryland already boasts a top 10 wins against Wisconsin and Illinois, so they have the potential to keep things close. Back Maryland here to cover. 

DePaul -1 v. Butler 

I feel sorry for DePaul, they have really only played the best of the Big East. So far they have played Connecticut, Seton Hall, and Providence. They are desperate for a conference win. Butler is coming off a win against Creighton, but I have to believe this will be a let down spot. The Big East, besides Georgetown, has had their way with this Butler team. I like DePaul to bring home their first Big East victory. 

LSU -1 v. Alabama 

This is the marquee matchup of the night. Alabama is easily one of the most well rounded teams in the nation right now and playing red hot. They have beaten every good team in the SEC already and look unstoppable. However, I think they are going to struggle against this LSU team. Alabama to date has not played a potent offense like LSU. LSU this year is Top 5 in offensive efficiency and my god have one of the best players in college right now in Cameron Thomas. In big spots this LSU team has absolutely BOAT RACED teams (see Arkansas). Give me the high powered offense for the win in this match-up. 

Duke -2.5 @ Pitt 

I am picking a second game that has nothing to deal with analytics and everything to deal with storyline. For the first time since 1961, neither Duke, UNC< and Kentucky are not ranked in the Top 25. Coach K must be pissed about this and is going to have his team fired up. This Duke team is significantly worse than years past, but they are going to put a 20 burger on Pitt tomorrow. 

All time record: 11-13 (45.83%)

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